Analysis and Prediction Outcomes of Retinopathy of Prematurity in Children Born in Different Solar Activity

Kutimova E. Y.
Ophtalmologist¹

Matrosova Yu. V.
MD, PhD, Head, Children’s Department¹

Shutova S. V.
PhD (Biology), Researcher¹

1 - S. Fyodorov Eye Microsurgery Federal State Institution, Tambov branch, Tambov, Russia

Kutimova Elena; e-mail: naukatmb@mail.ru

None declared.

The study had no sponsorship.

Purpose: Analysis and prognostic outcomes of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) depending on the solar activity at birth time and gestational age. Material and methods. 229 case histories of premature babies born within 2017-2019 were randomly selected. They were split into two groups: group I – children with ROP (1, 2 and 3 degree) and group II – without any ROP (pre retinopathy). The disease outcome was taken into account in the children with ROP: laser coagulation (LC) and spontaneous regression. Also, all children were split according to the seasons of birth: winter, spring, summer and autumn. Results. The seasonal differences in retinopathy outcomes were observed: in children born in spring and summer, the percentage of spontaneous regression was much lower and was 15% in spring, 13.2% in summer, 29% in autumn and 29.6% in winter. The percentage of performed LC on the contrary was 21.7%-28.3% in spring and summer period and 9.7%-14.8% in autumn and winter. Conclusion. A mathematical model is constructed for predicting the outcome of retinopathy of prematurity, determining the probability of spontaneous regression of the disease based on such independent variables as the level of insolation and the gestational age of the child. According to the obtained formula, the probability of spontaneous regression of retinopathy increases with an increase in gestational age and a decrease in solar activity at birth time. On the contrary, the probability of need for laser coagulation increases with a decrease in gestational age and an increase in the insolation intensity.

retinopathy of prematurity, solar activity, gestational age, preventive measure, prediction

10.29234/2308-9113-2020-8-3-67-75

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