Prediction of the Dynamics of Polymorbid Pathology

Fedorovitch G. V.
Doctor of Physics and Mathematics, Technical Director¹

1 - LLC «NTM-Zashchita» Moscow, Russian Federation

Fedorovitch Gennady; e-mail: fedorgv@gmail.com.

None declared.

The study had no sponsorship.

A unified methodological approach is proposed to describe the nosological structure of polymorbidity, to systematize its clinical and epidemiological properties and patterns, as well as for the phenomena associated with it. A probabilistic model is used to describe at the phenomenological level the picture of the formation of the resulting statistics of polymorbidity in a population. The ergodic hypothesis underlies the model of morbidity in the population. The results have the meaning of ensemble averages. The microscopic (internal) states of the system can take on all possible values compatible with the given values of the macroscopic (external) parameters. Of all the possible microscopic states, those that have the highest statistical weight are realized with the maximum probability. The real system defines the block diagram of the model. Those aspects of the system that correspond to the objectives of the study are displayed. The direct task is to draw up an epidemiological picture according to the clinical parameters of the disease. The inverse task is the formation of an individual (clinical) description of nosology based on epidemiological (population average) data. A special state probability linear regression method is proposed to compare theoretical results with observations. The test allows estimating the parameters of the real distribution. The adequacy of the model is checked when it is «fitted» to the observational data. The fitting parameters rationally characterize polymorbid pathology – the structure and incidence rate.

polymorbidity, modeling, statistics, ergodic hypothesis, linear regression

10.29234/2308-9113-2023-11-1-56-76

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